Vaccine
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COVID Cases Surge Expected This Summer, Experts Say At-Home Tests Still Reliable

While summer sun often leads people to forget about COVID-19, the virus remains a significant threat, continuing to infect, hospitalize, and even kill individuals. As new cases rise, experts are urging people to continue testing themselves, especially with the ongoing potential for a surge in infections.

“We are expecting a surge in cases as the summer progresses, too,” said Dr. Mark Loafman, a family physician based in Chicago. “Most places are starting to see more COVID in wastewater testing and starting to see more positives in their labs, so that’s coming as well,” Loafman added, stressing the importance of regular testing.

At-home COVID tests, which many people have on hand from government programs or local pharmacies, remain a reliable option for detecting the virus, according to experts. Dr. Sheldon Campbell, a professor at Yale School of Medicine, explained that the tests are designed to detect a consistent part of the virus, which remains stable even as variants evolve.

“The tests are designed against the part of the virus that tends not to change much as the strains change,” Campbell noted, explaining that while the spike protein of the virus mutates, the nucleocapsid, the part targeted by most home tests, stays relatively the same.

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Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, agreed, adding that since the circulating variants are all part of the Omicron family, “the tests ought to work quite reasonably well.”

However, experts caution that those with at-home tests should check expiration dates. “Each product has an expiration date that you should check, but some of those expiration dates have been extended,” said Loafman. The FDA provides details on extended shelf life for at-home tests on its website, and while some flexibility may be allowed, Campbell advised against using expired tests unless the date has been extended.

“If the test has been stored in a space that isn’t too hot or cold, it should be OK to use,” Schaffner said. “But tests from four or five years ago? No, I wouldn’t recommend that.” For those at higher risk for COVID complications, including individuals over 65, pregnant people, and those with chronic medical conditions, using an up-to-date test or seeking a PCR test is strongly recommended.

“A negative result from a COVID test in a medical setting is more accurate than a negative result from an at-home test,” said Loafman, noting that PCR tests are more sensitive. If symptoms persist after a negative result or if exposure to COVID is suspected, Campbell advised taking another test 48 hours later. For those needing clarity before visiting vulnerable loved ones, a PCR test is the safest bet.

“Make sure, particularly, everyone in a high-risk group takes advantage of the updated vaccine, which will be available this fall,” Schaffner concluded, urging everyone to stay prepared for the upcoming months.

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