How Trump Wins—Even If He Loses the Nomination
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Depending on who you consult, opinions on Donald Trump becoming the Republican nominee in 2024 vary from him having a clear path to victory to facing insurmountable obstacles. Some argue that Trump’s potential involvement in multiple legal cases could hinder a successful presidential campaign. However, others believe that his solid poll numbers suggest these legal challenges may not significantly affect his chances.
What’s clear is that Trump remains a decisive figure within the GOP, leading to significant concern among Republican strategists. A report from The Hill indicates these strategists are apprehensive about the implications of Trump not securing the nomination. The fear is that if Trump isn’t the nominee, a significant percentage of his staunchest supporters, making up between 25% and 35% of the GOP base, might disengage from the electoral process.
Matt Dole, an Ohio-based Republican strategist, reflected this sentiment, stating that there’s a prevalent belief that if Trump isn’t leading the ticket, his ardent supporters might abstain from voting. Though Trump’s influence on candidate selection is thought to have resulted in the GOP underperforming in House races, a Pew Research Center analysis suggests Trump’s base played a pivotal role in the GOP’s successes.
Another strategist, Brian Darling, voiced concerns about potential decreased turnout if Trump isn’t the nominee. He emphasized Trump’s ability to attract nontraditional voters to the GOP and speculated that without Trump, winning states like Ohio and others in the Midwest could prove challenging.
Bob Clegg, another Ohio-based Republican strategist, envisioned two scenarios: either Trump becomes the nominee, or he doesn’t and criticizes whoever secures the nomination.
An alternative scenario exists. If legal challenges prevent Trump’s candidacy, some Republican candidates, including the notable Ron DeSantis, have either insinuated or directly stated they’d pardon Trump if elected. In such a case, it would benefit Trump to rally his supporters behind the GOP’s chosen candidate.
However, predicting Trump’s next move remains challenging. If legal challenges derail his nomination bid, supporting another GOP contender could be Trump’s best shot at addressing perceived injustices within the Department of Justice.
