Former President Donald Trump’s campaign recently released internal polls showing him leading by an average of two points in major swing states. However, The National Review’s Henry Olsen raised concerns about the validity of these numbers, suggesting that some of the data does not add up.
Olsen particularly questions the claim that Trump has made significant gains among voters of color, yet is still only leading by a slim margin in key battleground states. According to Olsen, the math behind these polls doesn’t work unless Trump is losing support from white voters compared to previous elections.
“Trump’s own polling must show that he’s losing ground among white voters,” Olsen writes. “That’s what the public polling averages show.” He highlights data from The Cook Political Report, which tracks polling by demographic groups. The data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has a 17-point lead among white voters with at least a four-year college degree — almost double the nine-point lead that Biden had in 2020.
Olsen points out that this loss of support among college-educated white voters could pose a significant challenge for Trump, especially in the key Midwestern states he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. “The problem is that college-educated whites are most important in the Midwest, where Trump’s minority-driven gains are weakest,” Olsen explains.
This demographic shift is critical because, according to Olsen, if Trump’s internal polling is accurate, his gains among minority voters might not be enough to compensate for losses among white voters in the Midwest. “Factor these losses into the equation, and while Trump still leads or is tied in each of those states, he leads by frighteningly close margins,” Olsen writes.
Moreover, Olsen is skeptical of the significant gains among non-white voters claimed in Trump’s internal polling. He argues that if Trump’s support among Black voters is only 15 points better and 20 points better among Hispanic voters, as the campaign suggests, these narrow leads could quickly turn into narrow losses.
This raises concerns for Trump’s chances in crucial swing states where small changes in voter demographics could determine the outcome of the election. While Trump’s internal polls show a lead in swing states, Olsen warns that the underlying numbers may signal trouble, especially with potential losses among white voters in key regions.