Donald Trump’s campaign has recently made a play for states that conventional wisdom says are out of reach, and one political strategist senses some desperation. Democratic political strategist Simon Rosenberg, who recently analyzed the state of the presidential race and concluded that “Trump is not winning” the contest against President Joe Biden, recently published a blog post arguing that Trump’s bid for new states is different from a similar push by Biden.
“I am recommending that we make our big push in AZ, NC, and NE-2. Check is winning MI, PA, and WI. Checkmate is winning any one of AZ, NC, NE-2 or GA and NV,” he wrote in Hopium Saturday. “We should interpret the Trump campaign’s attempt to put MN and VA into play as a sign of desperation, as the only reason they would need to expand the map was if the current map is not working for them – which I don’t think it is.”
He continued, saying that the two positions are entirely different. “Us fighting for NC, which was lost by just 1 point last time, makes strategic sense,” the strategist added. “Them fighting for MN and VA which we won last time by 7 points doesn’t and is a sign of desperation.”
Rosenberg goes on to argue that Team Biden should be “feeling good” as the presidential debate approaches.
“Biden is in a much stronger position than he was a few weeks or few months ago. We still have more money than the Republicans, and a far better campaign apparatus and national political machine,” he noted. “The news on the economy, gas prices, the border, and crime has been very good for us in recent weeks. Trump’s crimes have become a material part of the election now, and it is hurting him, as it should. The Biden campaign has put a lot of money into communicating these crimes and the rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon narrative to voters in the battlegrounds, which is likely to push them further away from Trump in the coming weeks.”
Rosenberg’s analysis underscores the differences in campaign strategies between the two candidates. While Biden’s campaign is focusing on states with narrow margins from the last election, Trump’s team is targeting states that have been solidly blue, a move that Rosenberg interprets as a sign of trouble for the Trump campaign.
As the presidential debate approaches, Rosenberg’s insights suggest that Biden’s campaign is confident and strategically positioned, while Trump’s efforts to expand into new territories may reflect underlying weaknesses in his current strategy.