Donald Trump’s recent decision to scale back proposed massive tariffs on China risks portraying the United States as a “paper tiger,” potentially emboldening Beijing and threatening stability across the Taiwan Strait, according to two prominent national security experts.
Nicholas Burns, former U.S. ambassador to China under Joe Biden from 2021 to 2025, voiced concern over the message Trump’s tariff diplomacy sends to Chinese leadership. Speaking on the One Decision podcast, co-hosted by Leon Panetta and CBS correspondent Christina Ruffini, Burns warned that signs of American inconsistency could lead Chinese President Xi Jinping to test U.S. resolve in more dangerous arenas.
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“We have a very tough, tough position on Taiwan,” Burns said. “If Xi Jinping concludes from a tariff negotiation that the United States is in essence a paper tiger, that it doesn’t mean what it says, that it blinks first, that’s not what you want to have in his mind on something even more serious, which would be Taiwan, for instance, and a cross-strait invasion by the People’s Liberation Army.
“You want the other person on the other side of the table to know that you are credible.” Trump has long promoted tariffs as a centerpiece of his economic and foreign policy strategy. However, his pattern of aggressive posturing followed by retreats has drawn criticism.
This week, the Trump administration announced a preliminary trade agreement that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on American imports would fall to 10%. Critics argue that the deal, still under negotiation, was undermined by Trump’s premature suggestion that tariffs could be lowered to 80%, even before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent began talks in Geneva.
“War and peace negotiations end up relying more or less on that very difficult-to-explain concept that the other guy or woman is credible in these negotiations. And we may have lost that,” Burns said. “President Trump might be able to gain it back… but why give them a concession before the talks have even started?”
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The White House later attempted to clarify the president’s remarks, stating the 80% figure was “a number the president threw out there.” Panetta, who served as both CIA Director and Secretary of Defense under President Barack Obama, echoed Burns’ concern, saying, “It’s Trump’s position in other parts of the world, too. I mean, he threatens, but then there isn’t a real follow-through… this image of a paper tiger is becoming prevalent.”
Burns emphasized the scale of the challenge the U.S. faces. “Xi Jinping’s China is a much more powerful economic, technological, and military adversary than even the Soviet Union was… This is the strongest adversary we’ve ever had in both [cyber and space] domains.”
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